One beautiful evening 35 years ago, I was enjoying the races at
the classical old Narragansett Race Track in Rhode Island. My money
was on an obvious false favorite. Down the stretch they came, my ears started hearing the cash register ring as my horse was stretching his lead. That was the night that I learned there are false favorites.

It was a $1500 Claiming race and my horse was only 9 years old.
As his front legs straightened, he lunged up and fell dead. Only 50
feet from the finish line lay a few thousand pounds of reason
not to bet on false favorites.

Luckily the horse had the heart attack and not me. Guess you
would have to say that my horse (let's call him Gump)  was
questionable. Gump had four legs, a tail, a jockey and enough
money bet on him to make him the favorite. The moral is Gump
was a false favorite. Every Gump and his kin that are eight years
old or more must be considered false favorites. If you can't find
younger horses to bet on than Gump, I would suggest you take
up chess. There is a reason that the prime of a racehorse is
in its five year old season.

Bruce's False Favorite Indicator # 1:

The old gray mare, ain't what she used to be.

Now, other reasons false favorites eat Money instead of hay.
One of the most common reasons is POOR FORM.
Look out if a pony, having shown some Class in the past,
is led to the starting gate without the benefit of good
workout patterns after an extended layoff. Out of shape
past Class does not make strong favorites.

Even with good workout patterns, unless the past
performances show the horse runs good when fresh, and,
the trainer has a proven record of bringing 'em back
winning, it is best to keep your twenties in your wallet.

Unless you are a "Jogger" get up now and run around
the block. I'm sore and gasping just thinking about it.

Bruce's False Favorite Indicator # 2

If there is a chance of POOR FORM-PASS


Hail, hail the gangs all here. There's Old Plug.
Haven't seen him since last April. There's New Plug.
Haven't seen him, ever. Ha Ha, there's Hayseed.
He's from one of those Hillbilly ovals. I wonder if I can
beat all these strangers?  Maybe! Maybe not!!
Old Plug, New Plug and Hayseed are good reasons
not to wager.

Bruce's False Favorite Indicator # 3:

Two or more unknown quantities. NO BET


Wow! There's my favorite. He's the Class. He's in form.
He likes the surface. How can I lose. Easy! It's a route on
the grass and my Great One is breaking from the 11 hole.
Then there is Great One #2 in the next race ready to show
his stuff from the 8 hole. Wonder if he can overcome those
three speedsters near the rail. Then there is Great One #3
in the last race.  Good old 1 hole. Of course the rail
hasn't won in sixteen days.

Bruce's False Favorite Indicator # 4

Find the Bias and don't bet against it


Over the years I have saved several bucks by avoiding favorites
that have never won two races lifetime. Only about 5% or so
ever win a second race. So there isno good reason to bet
against the odds. Remember the favorite only wins about 30%
of the time, so to accept short odds on a horse who just might
fall into that 95% slot of non second race winners goes against
my grain. Yes Joe, I know that there are races where all the
horses have only won One. A low priced favorite is not going
to get my money. 12-1, well maybe.

Bruce's False Favorite Indicator # 5:

Horse must have a winning history.


Old Joe shows that in his last race, for the first time in 696 starts
he came in 2nd. Yippee, he's ready to win.  About half of the
second place finishers come back to win. Or so I have read.
I believe every thing I read. Second place last race is often
enough to make a horse the favorite. If the line shows that he
passed a bunch of tired horses, or it was a weak field and he
just kind of sucked along behind the winner, chances are this 8th
race favorite will come in first in the 9th race.
Be extremely careful of misleading lines in the past performances.

Bruce's False Favorite Indicator # 6

Weak "in the money" performance last race


Petunia Pony looks great in the 5th. Can't be beaten.
She's classy and ready. Well maybe she is.
But is the jockey? 154 races 6 wins.
Is the Trainer? 84 starts 2 wins.
When a GOOD trainer has a GOOD
and ready horse he chooses a GOOD jockey. Got it?

Bruce's False Favorite Indicator # 7

Top 10 jock and trainer or no thanks.


The strongest false favorite of all for me is: Big Nose .
He shows a brilliant racing career.56- 2- 14- 9.
The reason he is named Big Nose is that his nose is always
just under the front runners tail, having too good  a time to pass.

Bruce's False Favorite Indicator # 8

Never bet on a sniffer.


Since the favorite only wins on average 30 to 33%,
it means that a better paying horse wins 67 to 70%
When you see my eight indicators and pass the race,
you will find your wallet getting fatter.

It is OK to bet favorites some of the time,
it's even OK to bet favorites lots of the time,
but a sure path to the poorhouse
is to bet favorites ALL the time.