Horserace Handicapping
The Talent of
Picking Winners
Horserace
Handicapping is predicting the winner of a horse race. The process
evaluates the abilities of a horse to perform under the conditions
which it will be racing under. To judge these abilities
handicappers use past performances, published records of preceding
races. These past performances indicate the horse's speed, its
ability to win, and whether the performances tend to be getting
better or worse. The conditions under which the horse will be
racing include the quality of the competition in the race, the
distance of the race, the type of racing surface, and the current
condition of that surface (fast, good, sloppy).
For what I would
consider a PHD in horserace handicapping, famous handicapper and
author James Quinn has written a new updated
The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping
considered to represent the professional handicapping field at its
best and brightest.
"The beauty of James
Quinn's updated anthology is not any one revelation that he brings
to the table, but that he's synthesized so many voices and give
you so many more angles to consider. Those of you who play
regularly know how easy it is to identify the obvious chalk-- and
how hard it is to get past the two or three "best on
paper" types to get to live, mid-priced overlays. You know,
the horses that are the difference between a minus day and a
wildly profitable day.
In addition, the fact that he has brought so many voices together
on money management-- the topic I see the least amount of
literature on-- alone makes this worthwhile.
This isn't the type of book I'd toss to a novice, but it will make
the intermediate player much more flexible and creative." (from
review)
Major handicapping factors are:
Speed, Class, Pace, Form
Other Factors: Distance, Trips, Trainer, Jockey, Track Surface,
Post Position, Pedigree, Weight, Equipment, Medication, Age, Sex.
Famous Handicapper Nick Mordin recently made these observations
that are well worth remembering.
• Horses do not improve with first time blinkers.
• 3-year-olds do not do better against older horses
late in the season.
• Horses carrying more weight win more frequently.
• Fillies need more pedigree stamina than colts
to win at any distance in the top class.
• Horses that weigh more do better and colts,
weighing about 100 pounds more, usually
dominate fillies, especially in longer races.
• Horses defeated as favorites in top races and
then stepped up in class in next race do well.
• Wide margin (five or more lengths) maiden
winners win frequently the next time out.
• Female jockeys win more than males and are
usually under bet.
• Well-bred horses win less often than poorly
bred ones in low class races.
• Higher-class races have closer finishes.
• Fillies are pushed harder earlier in their careers
and as very few colts become stallions they race
longer than most mares.
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